Call or Fold with Top Two Pair vs. a Possible Flush?
DECISION POINT: In a no-limit hold'em tournament, it folds to you on the button with A?K? and you raise. The small blind calls and the big blind folds. The flop is A?10?K?. The small blind checks, you bet, and the small blind calls. The turn is the 6?. The small blind moves all in. Action is on you...
PRO ANSWER: As a default against an unknown opponent, we should not fold on the turn.
Although we are drawing thin against flushes, there are more than enough combos of pair plus one club type hands in Villain's range to justify our calling here with top two pair.
Hands like K-Q, K-J, Q-T, J-T, A-Q and other A-x hands (all with one club) might play the turn this way. Our hand has lots of equity against a large portion of their hand range.
Given that any offsuit hand is three times as common as its suited counterpart, hands with one club will be much more common for Villain to have on the turn compared to made flushes.
Also, folding a hand as strong as top two would be exploitable with stacks this shallow. Villain could take this line profitably with their entire preflop range if we fold all hands up to and including top two pair.
Unless we have compelling opponent information that suggests our opponent would only take this line with flushes and straights, we should call this all-in.
Calling is the best play.
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