Flopped Set vs. a Check-Raise -- What Do You Do Here?
DECISION POINT: In a cash game, a player sitting UTG+1 limps in and so does the next player over. Then two more middle position players and the hijack limp in as well. You are in the cutoff seat with A?A? and raise and it folds around to one of the middle position players who calls. Everyone else folds, so it's heads-up to the flop, which comes K?A?7?.
Your opponent checks and you bet, then the middle-position player raises. The action is on you...
PRO ANSWER: In this hand we are heads-up to the flop in a raised pot and flop top set on a "monotone" board (i.e., all three flop cards are the same suit).
After our continuation bet gets raised, we have to make a decision for what is likely to be the remaining effective stack.
In this situation, many players are overly concerned about the potential flush on the board. Flushes are certainly a significant portion of our opponent's range, but overall we are still a favorite in this hand. Our opponent could hold hands like 7x7x, A?Q?, A?Kx and A?7x in addition to the many diamond combinations.
Sets are extremely powerful because they not only beat other strong made hands, but they also can fill up to a full house or quads to beat any made flushes.
This helps your equity tremendously in situations like this one. In fact, against a reasonable opponent's range that even includes many flushes, we are still a 60-40 favorite in this hand.
Since there will be less than a pot-sized bet left in stacks if we call, and because a diamond on the turn may kill our action when our opponent has two pair or a lower set, we should move all in on the flop.
Moving all-in is the best play.
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