Esfandiari's Three
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We all know that Antonio Esfandiari and Phil Laak love to play "Johnny Lodden Thinks" - a bidding game wherein an independent, third party picks a number, and two or more players bid until one player has the under, and the other players have the over.
Esfandiari is currently playing Lodden Thinks with his tablemates Chris Klodnicki and Bertrand "ElkY" Grospellier, and they asked another player at the table to set a line for the following scenario.
"What are the chances of success, from 1-100%, of myself, Klodnicki, and ElkY robbing a bank?" he asked. "We have a full year to prepare, we have to remove at least one item from the vault, and we can never be caught."
The player thought of a percentage, and the bidding began. Grospellier bought 18% and under, leaving Klodnicki and Esfandiari with 19% and over.
"Do you want more action?" Esfandiari asked Grospellier. "I'll lay you $1,100:$1,000."
Grospellier refused, and the player gave his number: "Eighty-eight percent. There's no way you guys couldn't rob a bank."
The entire table erupted with laughter.
"I think we're slight favorites," Esfandiari admitted when the laughter died down.